From the window of the new Indian embassy in Budapest, the paint on the wall was still not dry, Charge D’Affaires Mohamed Mohamed or Rahman witnessed a small nation that rose to an empire. Tens of thousands of protesters gathered when Veres Péter intellectually read Manifesto demanding independence from foreign forces, and democracy. Soviet dictatorial statue Joseph Stalin was lowered and beheaded; The communist emblem was torn out of the national flag.
Rahman watched when the Soviet Union Tanks rolled the secret trial.
As did in 1956, New Delhi had responded to the crisis in Ukraine with Saleh’s words but anodyne: “All parties,” “Descalation,” “diplomatic involvement” and stepped diplomacy. During several generations, the big strategy of India to deal with a large power conflict has consisted of sitting on the fence – but this time, the country might find it piercing myself in one of the nails.
Equivocation reaches an impasse
Salvos sanctions United States and its allies shooting against Russia are Indian nightmare items. The US has not provided neglect that released India from sanctions on the purchase of Russian military equipment. Getting Washington now signs the purchase of the S-400 air defense system seems almost impossible. There is no clarity about how India will be able to continue imports of defense from Russia, it is important for its military preparedness.
From 1950 – rejected by the West-India slowly turned to the Soviet Union for military equipment and technology. Although imports from Russia have slowly declined, expert Sameer Lalwani and others estimate that 81 percent of all Indian defense equipment is expected to come from the country. India is responsible for the purchase of a third of all Russian defense exports in the 2010-2020 period – and that equipment requires spare parts and services.
The commitment that is resilient to the doqivocation has reached a deadlock. New Delhi cannot break with partners needed to hedge China, such as the United States, Australia and Japan. However, the cost separates his relationship with Russia is not trivial.
The unhappiness of New Delhi with sanctions is not difficult to understand – and it is not only about military dependence. From the research conducted by Rabobank analyst, it was clear that truly effective sanctions for Russia would also have an impact on India. Russia is one of three largest crude suppliers in the world, along with the US and Saudi Arabia.
India does not buy a lot of Russian crude oil, but if other manufacturers do not compensate for Russian equipment eliminated from the global market with sanctions, prices can surge up to $ 135 per barrel. In the Russian clock invasion, the price crosses $ 100 for the first time in seven years.
The final significant supply disruption – was caused by the Libyan civil war in 2011 – keeping crude oil over $ 125 for months. Increased inflation waves that reduce the regime throughout the world, including the government of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh.
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