This means that Philip Da when I watched the poll coming out for the assembly selection of 2022 Uttar Pradesh. Forecasts other terms for Bharatiya Janata’s party is very sad, but it doesn’t surprise me. The BJP victory margin is projected by several – 300 plus a chair and a two-digit lead in the sound division – is and still surprisingly. But I was not surprised by the extensive direction and the operational conclusion was mostly the poll coming out. An article by Philip Oldenburg three decades ago had prepared me for such shocks.
This is not how my friends see it. Most of my friends, fellow travelers and friends have expected not lack of kerute to BJP. During the past two months they have shared stories about how BJP was removed in the analysis of Western Up, Seat-by-Seat of the Decimation of the BJP in Poorvanchal and the video about how Akhilesh Yadav draws a large crowd throughout the state. I understand their surprise at the poll coming out now. If the government is mediocre with a cardboardity of a leader to win the people’s approval, and it is also within one year from one of the worst public health disasters followed by a strong anti-government farmer movement, it must surprise anyone.
I recovered from this surprise for the past six weeks, when I travel through Uttar Pradesh. I have heard of popular dissatisfaction with the Yogi Aditityath government. I expect anger to the bad record of the development, welfare and law-and-commands. I think people will never forget the difficulties faced by migrant workers during locking or at least the ideals they suffer during the second wave of Covid-19 pandemic. We have documented how BJP was denied throughout the Manifesto promising to farmers. I have seen the power of the farmer’s movement in the West.
However, in the field, I did not find an anti-farmer mood in the state. Not because everyone is happy. I experienced a large amount of deep disappointment, complaints about officials and political leaders and strong anxieties about their lives and livelihoods. But this does not translate into popular anger towards the BJP government. There is a “common sense” distributed by ordinary voters, everyone except Yadav, Jatavs and Muslims.
Capturing the ‘commonsense’
This important will come out in a typical conversation in the countryside. You ask people about their condition, and you hear Litani complaints (which is an unsuspect journalist mistake for intense anti-incumbencies): ‘Everything is very bad. Our family income has fallen for the past two years. There is no job for educated youth. So many of us lose the work we have. Children cannot learn during a pandemic. Many parents in our village died without medical support. We cannot sell our crops for official prices (MSP). ‘It was mentioned about wild livestock inviting Tirade: Naak Me Dam Kar Diya Hai (Bane of us is existence). And mehngai (price increase)? Don’t even start talking about it.
Now you hope they blame everything to the rulers. But the question of the performance of the Aditentalath Government received a surprising positive response: “Achish Sarkar Hai, The Kiaya Hai (it is a decent government, has done a good job).” Before you can ask, they tell two benefits. Everyone gets additional foodgrain, more than and above the standard quota, plus cooking oil and chana. And almost everyone, including many voters for the Samajwadi Party (SP), mentioned the increase in law and order. “Hamari Behen Beiyan Sureshit Hain (our safe woman)” is a standard refrain.
But what about all the problems they just count? You ask this question and they start rationalizing on behalf of BJP. “What can the government do about these things? Coronavirus is global, so it will be inflation. Everything will be worse but for Modiji. Is he responsible for not feeding cattle after they grow old? ‘While every little achievement of BJP, real or What is imagined, it is known by every voter, SP cannot make some of the biggest pain points in the election problem. I almost did not meet the voters who would recognize several major polls from the akhilesh party yadav.
It will be an error to put this common sense in the list of pro-or anti-incumbency standards. This is not about routine assessment of the work done by the government. The voters seemed to have decided before they began to reason. They are not judges, but advocates. They know which argument side they keep, which stands with them. BJP has formed an emotional bond with a broad segment of voters. They are willing to suspend distrust, forgive margovernance, undergo material suffering and still live with the ‘own’ side. They did not mention the ayodhya or Kashi’s own temple, but the Hindu-Muslim gap is very subtekat from this common sense.
What about caste? Needless to say, this common sense does not fully cut all castees and communities. But arithmetic castes don’t work for profit sp. No doubt, Jadav is fully mobilized behind SP, “110 percent” as they say in Hindi. Muslims have almost no choice but SP, apart from interesting rhetoric from Asaduddin Owaici. Sp play smart by giving fewer tickets to Yadav and Muslims. Muslim voters in turn play a role in maintaining a low profile, even though YADAV support for SP looks and aggressively. Yadav and Muslims refuse to share pro-peteamed common sense. They will choose a hole in any pro-government rationalization. Their polarization is undoubtedly helping SP, but it won’t be enough.
Illusory SP wave?
I found that my friends really really estimated support for SP among non-YADAV, non-Muslim voters. The famous dissatisfaction of the Brahmin of the Thakur CM Adityanath government did not translate anything on the ground. Called ‘Upper’ Castes continues to be the strongest caste selection bank for BJP. There are some erosion among agricultural communities such as JATS, Kurmis and Maurya, but far less than my imagined friends. With some exceptions – Nishad in certain places, for example – another backup (OBC) remains with BJP. Each SP supporter calculates the voters of the Bahujan Party (BSP) who are unsatisfactory to go to SP. I found a little evidence about it, except among several PASI. If there is, the former BSP voter and supporters of former Congress more towards BJP than SP.
So, is the wave impression that supports Akhilesh Yadav and the party is truly illusory? Not too. There is, no doubt, spikes SP everywhere. Great crowd for real Akhilesh public meetings. Polling out shows that the SP will be better the best performance 29 percent in terms of sound. It is necessary to improve 2017 performance with around 15 percentage points and bring BJP with at least 5 points to win this election. It’s always a Herculean asking. While everyone records, correctly, that SP gets, not much asking a real question: how much and wide is the advantage?
In the Bipolar election, the threshold of victory rose. The best sp will not be good enough. Also, SP’s profit does not automatically lose BJP. Out of the poll confirmed that the shift from a multi-click contest to the race of two horses means that while SP has gone up, BJP has managed to maintain or better share the voting. While those who shift from BJP are visible and volugle, those who live together or shift towards BJP remain silent. The Indian Today-axis My India came out polls reported a massive advantage for BJP among female voters. Most observers, including this writer, skip this main factor.
Talk to voters
While I continue to believe and hope that the race is closer than expected by the poll coming out, I have one suggestion for my friends. If BJP wins this election, do not immediately jump to the conclusion of the polls. Instead of BJP above such manipulation or that election commission in any position to hold it back. But in this case, this is not about EVM fraud; It’s about cheating on our TV screen and smartphone. It’s not a catch booth, but mindscape thinking, effective arrests of moral and political common sense.
This took me to Philip Oldenburg, or Philip Da when I called him, one of the most insightful Indian political scholars despite being less celebrated. In 1988 he wrote an article why most ‘political experts’ and political activists failed to anticipate the wave of Congress in the Sabha 1984 selection. The argument was very simple: Triad from political leaders, journalists and local informants continued to talk to each other about the election trend and producing consensus about the possibility of election results. The problem is that no one is pleased to speak with ordinary voters. This is what pollster does and that is why they tend to do it right.
When I traveled through Uttar Pradesh for the past few weeks, this lesson returned to me again and again. I hope my friends will stop talking to each other, stop listening to the sound of the media and go out to talk to ordinary citizens. Our political challenges are connected and intervened into common sense and politics with voters. It’s not too late to learn this lesson. We are still two years from 2024.
About The Author
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